GOP rises as Trump fades from public spotlight

The juxtaposition between the GOP's future — embodied to some by Youngkin, who carefully trod the line between Trump supporter and establishment Republican to flip the governor's seat in blue-trending Virginia — and its recent past as the "party of Trump" is particularly stark as the party, which enjoyed a 14-point swing in 2021 to gain an edge over Democrats with regard to voter registration, made gains at the national level.

"It's going to be an outstanding cycle for Republicans up and down the ticket. You really have a perfect storm," John Thomas, a Republican strategist and president of Thomas Partners Strategies, told the Washington Examiner. "It's still a while to November, but if you do historical comparisons to the wave in 2010, almost by every indicator, Republicans are in a stronger position now than they were in other wave years."

Thomas noted that Republicans are performing very strongly across the board in polling. He said Republicans also appear to have an edge in small-dollar donations — a potential indicator of strong Republican voter turnout in the 2022 midterm elections.